State of Origin Game 1 is six weeks away and the broadcast rights conversation around the series is more interesting than it has been in years. The combined free-to-air and streaming numbers from 2025 told a story the rights holders are still digesting, and the implications go well beyond rugby league.

Here’s what’s actually happening behind the scenes.

The 2025 audience floor held, but only just

Game 1 of Origin 2025 averaged 3.18 million viewers across Channel Nine and 9Now combined. That’s down from 3.41 million in 2024 and 3.62 million in 2023. The trend is real and the trend is downward, but not catastrophically so. The floor for Origin appears to be somewhere around 3 million, which remains the largest sports audience in Australia outside of an AFL Grand Final.

What’s more interesting is the streaming split. 9Now accounted for 28% of total Game 1 viewing in 2025, up from 22% in 2024 and 16% in 2023. That trajectory matters because it changes the economics of how Nine sells the property.

A streaming viewer is worth more in advertising terms (better targeting, more inventory per hour) but less in carriage terms (no metro/regional licence value). The shift toward streaming is shifting the value pool from licence fees toward direct advertising revenue, which is a structural change for the whole rights market.

What the next deal could look like

The current Origin rights sit inside the broader NRL deal which runs through 2027. When the next round of negotiations starts (likely Q3 2026 according to industry whispers), Origin will almost certainly be carved out as a separate property with its own valuation.

The reason: Origin commands roughly 4-5x the audience of an average regular season NRL game but is currently being sold as part of a bundle that does not reflect that premium. Anyone who has worked in sports rights will tell you this kind of mispricing always gets corrected at the next negotiation.

A standalone Origin rights deal in 2027 could plausibly sit at $80-110 million per year for the three-game series, particularly if Nine and DAZN both bid aggressively. That would be a roughly 60% premium to its current implied value.

The Foxtel question

Foxtel’s position in the rugby league rights market gets weaker every year. The Kayo subscriber base has plateaued at around 1.5 million according to the most recent News Corp investor update, and the average revenue per user has been flat in nominal terms for three years.

The big question for Origin specifically is whether Foxtel will even bid in 2027 or whether the property goes purely to free-to-air plus a streaming partner. My read is that Foxtel will bid but won’t win exclusivity on Origin, because the audience economics for them on a three-game annual property don’t make sense at the price Nine can pay.

Where DAZN actually sits

DAZN has been mentioned in every Australian sports rights conversation for two years and has so far bought essentially nothing of consequence. Their Australian launch has been delayed twice. The local executive team has churned through three heads of content acquisition.

I’d be surprised if DAZN was a serious bidder for NRL or Origin in 2027. More likely they pick up a tier-two property (possibly the W-League rights, possibly some niche European football) to establish presence and then make a play for one of the major codes in the 2030 cycle.

The streaming threat to free-to-air sports rights in Australia in 2026 is more about Amazon and Stan than DAZN. Amazon in particular has been very quiet recently, which is usually when they’re about to do something significant.

What this means for commentary and production

Here’s the part that gets less coverage than it should. The shift of audience toward streaming is changing what the production and commentary product needs to look like.

Streaming viewers, particularly under-35 streaming viewers, watch with second screens. They follow social commentary in real time. They expect on-demand replay access during live play. The product Nine put to air in 2025 was still essentially a 2015 broadcast with a live stream attached.

The next generation of Origin coverage needs proper interactive features, alternate commentary streams, real-time stats overlays that don’t require leaving the app, and meaningful integration with social. Some of this is happening (the data integration on 9Now has improved) but it’s still well behind what NFL streams in the US look like in 2026.

This is also where AI-driven personalisation starts to matter. Real-time clip generation, automated highlights packages tuned to individual viewer interests, dynamic ad insertion based on viewer profile. The production teams that figure this out first will have a meaningful edge in the next rights cycle. A few of the smaller production houses are already working with consultancies like Team400 on data and AI workflows for live sport, which is the kind of capability that will matter when the bigger broadcasters are finally forced to upgrade.

What to watch for in 2026

The Game 1 audience number this year will set the tone for the entire 2027 negotiation. If it stays above 3 million, Origin keeps its premium status. If it drops below 2.8 million, Nine’s bargaining position in those negotiations weakens significantly.

Watch the 9Now share too. If it pushes past 35%, the structural conversation about distribution shifts permanently.

And keep an eye on whether Channel Seven makes any noise about the next NRL bid. They’ve been quiet for two cycles, but a return to the bidding table would change the dynamics significantly.

Origin remains the single most valuable annual sports moment in Australian television. How it gets sold next time will tell us a lot about where the broader sports rights market is heading.